Monday, March 10, 2008

First post

So I feel it's time for my first post to this blog. I haven't decided what my posts will be about. Maybe a little of everything. Whatever is currently on my mind about baseball. Perhaps some posts about the current state of the Mets, but maybe some more dissecting of past actions.

Today's post: The art of the trade "for x number of minor leaguers"

When a trade goes down in baseball where a superstar is traded for a few minor league players, the average baseball fan doesn't think much of it. But to a fan like myself, it's intriguing. "Buy low, sell high". Does the team receiving the superstar know exactly who they are giving away? 3 years down the road, will these minor leaguers become superstars of their own? To the team giving away the superstar, was it the impending free agency of the superstar that forced the trade?

Obviously, the most recent trade like this was when the Mets traded 4 of their minor leaguers for Johan Santana. Two of these minor leaguers, Phil Humber and Carlos Gomez, already saw some major league time. How will they turn out? My opinion is that Humber will be a serviceable number 3 starter, and Gomez will be an above average hitter with some good defense. The other two players, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra, their futures are harder to determine. The overwhelming consensus regarding this trade was a win for the Mets. But only time will tell.

I'd also like to bring up a few other of these trades, which I think are pretty interesting. Obviously these don't come close to all of the big trades in the past 10 or so years, but just a few off the top of my head...

July 31, 1998: Randy Johnson traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Houston Astros for a player to be named later, Freddy Garcia, and Carlos Guillen. The Houston Astros sent John Halama (October 1, 1998) to the Seattle Mariners to complete the trade.

I remember the day this trade went down, and by the end of the season, thinking it was a great trade for the Astros. For the rest of the season, Randy Johnson went 10-1 with an unbelievable 1.28 ERA and led the Astros to the playoffs. But they won their division by 12 games. If the Astros never made the trade, they still would have won the division, and kept those "minor leaguers", two of which turned out to become All-Stars. Interesting to think about.

November 24, 2005: Josh Beckett traded by the Florida Marlins with Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to the Boston Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Harvey Garcia, and Jesus Delgado (minors).

This trade I would consider more even. The Red Sox acquired Beckett and Lowell, and in two seasons won the World Series again. The Marlins got back Anibal Sanchez, who threw a no-hitter already, and Hanley Ramirez, possibly the best shortstop in the game already. More time will tell who the real winner is, but at this point, I'd give it to the Red Sox.

July 30, 2004: Scott Kazmir traded by the New York Mets with Jose Diaz to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano.

Enough said.


Anyone have any other interesting trades to dissect?

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