Not sure if A-Dubz sent this article to everyone else, but he sent it to me. I posted a reply to it at Flashing the Leather and will just copy and paste it below.
Once in a Blue Moon, someone writes an absolutely essential piece. Dante Alighieri wrote The Divine Comedy. Then Giovanni Boccaccio wrote The Decameron. William Shakespeare wrote Hamlet. Thomas Jefferson wrote "The Declaration of Independence." Herman Melville wrote Moby Dick, or The Whale. Darwin wrote On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life.
Since Darwin's publication in 1859, there really have not been any seminal works. However, on 10 March 2008, less than a week ago, Paul Daugherty changed that and drew the United States up ahead of those wankers in England and the caffoni in Italy.
His recent article, [Cincinnati Reds Manager Dusty] Baker judges by his senses just may change how people see, not only baseball, but the world.
Before reading Daugherty's article, I thought that batters wanted to walk. Now I realize that "walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth." He also continues to advocate the Reds trading Joey Votto and Homer Bailey for Joe Blanton.
Before reading this jewel, my problem was not so much with Blanton (although I thought this would be a terrible trade for the Reds to make) as it was with Daugherty's argument for him and arguments against statistics in general. Now I have been made to understand that the only pitching statistic that matters is "Games Won."
He has also made me realize that stats like Flyball/Groundball Ratio are unnecessarily complex and Home and Road ERA Splits are too arbitrary and confusing to have any utility when assessing players' strong and weak points.
He goes on to break down statistical analysis the way it should be done: A way that average scientists like me can understand. Who knew that at the end of the season, when all is said and done, each time a batter walks, he has wasted an opportunity to bat in one half of a run? If I had only known that taking fewer first-pitch strikes would improve run production, I could have imparted that wisdom to Tim Raines. If only he'd realized that those 1330 plate appearances where he'd walked could have been changed into 665 RBI, maybe he could have been a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.
Finally, Daugherty ties up the article in the clearest, simplest manner, by listing the Managerial Win tallies of Dusty Baker and Bill James. 1162 - 0.
Just to put Daugherty's numbers in a bit more perspective here, a little further research shows that Baker also lost 1041 games (for a Winning Rate of .527). Never mind the fact that he has managed the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs who have consistently had two of the highest payrolls in the NL in recent years.
In 2002, Baker's final year in SF, the Giants finished in second place, with 95 Wins and a $78 M payroll, but the only teams with higher payrolls and fewer wins were the NY Mets (75 Wins, $95 M) and the LA Dodgers (92 W, $95 M). In 2006, Baker's final year in Chicago, the Cubs finished with 66 Wins, least in the National League, 17 1/2 games out of first. Please also note that the Cubs had the highest payroll in their division and 3rd highest in the National League.
But, then again, at least Baker knows his scotch.
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