So here are my predicted records for the year...perhaps I'll think of some explanations for them later in the week, when somehow, some of them already become mathematically impossible.

Edit: So, I had some adding problems. Fixing it up. And yes, Russ, I was predicting a tornado come into Atlanta wiping out a four game Mets-Braves series, especially after what happened there during the SEC tourney.

AL East:

Boston Red Sox : 2007 :96-66 2008: 97-65
New York Yankees: 2007: 94-68 2008: 94-68
Toronto Blue Jays: 2007: 83-79 2008: 82-80
Tampa Bay Rays: 2007: 66-96 2008: 79-83
Baltimore Orioles: 2007: 69-93 2008: 63-99

AL Central:

Detroit Tigers: 2007: 88-74 2008: 94-68
Cleveland Indians: 2007: 96-66 2008: 93-69
Minnesota Twins: 2007: 79-83 2008: 75-87
Kansas City Royals 2007: 69-93 2008: 74-88
Chicago White Sox 2007: 72-90 2008: 72-90

AL West:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 2007: 94-68 2008: 94-68
Seattle Mariners: 2007: 88-74 2008: 84-78
Texas Rangers 2007: 75-87 2008: 75-87
Oakland Athletics: 2007: 76-86 2008: 69-93

NL East:

New York Mets: 2007: 88-74 2008: 92-70
Atlanta Braves 2007: 84-78 2008: 89-73
Philadelphia Phillies: 2007: 89-73 2008: 87-75
Washington Nationals: 2007: 73-89 2008: 73-89
Florida Marlins 2007: 71-91 2008: 67-95

NL Central:

Chicago Cubs: 2007: 85-77 2008: 87-75
Milwaukee Brewers: 2007: 83-79 2008: 84-78
Cincinnati Reds: 2007: 72-90 2008: 77-85
St. Louis Cardinals: 2007: 78-84 2008: 71-91
Houston Astros: 2007: 73-89 2008: 71-91
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007: 68-94 2008: 65-97

NL West:

Arizona Diamondbacks: 2007: 90-72 2008: 91-71
Colorado Rockies: 2007: 90-73 2008: 89-73
Los Angeles Dodgers: 2007: 82-80 2008: 87-75
San Diego Padres 2007: 89-74 2008: 87-75
San Francisco Giants: 2007: 71-91 2008: 69 -93

The 25 Man Roster

We are less than two weeks away from Opening Day and the Mets are starting to figure out who they want on their roster come March 31st. I have predicted a 24 man team, with a 25th spot still up for grabs. Here it is:

C (2)
Ramon Castro
Brian Schneider

Neither catcher has played too much during the spring due to injury, but I think both will be healthy enough come March 31st. I think this is a position where we really can't expect to get too much offense, but it should be a solid number 7 or 8 position in the lineup when compared to other contenders. Look for spring surprise Robinson Cancel to make the roster if one of the two can't go.

IF (6)

Jose B. Reyes
David Wright
Carlos Delgado
Damion Easley
Marlon Anderson
Luis Castillo

The infield is the strongest part of this team. Reyes and Wright have been hitting this spring (each hitting over .300). Luis Castillo has had only 14 at bats so far, with hits in 4 of those at bats. He's slowly coming along and will look to post similar numbers to what he did last season. Carlos Delgado is another story, as he looks to put away last season's miserable season. After multiple injuries this spring, Delgado finally looks to be healthy enough, however he is batting under .200 and has already shown frustration by throwing a bat after one of his plate appearances. Something like that during the spring is a cause for concern from my view. If Easley and Anderson are healthy, they can be a huge asset off the bench, and can really play anywhere, including the outfield.

OF (4)
Angel Pagan
Ryan Church
Carlos Beltran
Endy Chavez

As it is looking now, the Mets starting outfield will be Pagan, Beltran and Church, from left to right. Pagan's huge spring makes the Moises Alou injury look at least a little less substantial (we all expected an injury anyway), and keeps Endy on the bench, where he can do his best work. Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley are expected to get looks in the outfield, and as veterans I expect them to play adequate enough defense, nothing flashy, just getting the job done.

SP (5)
Johan Santana
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Pedro Martinez
Mike Pelfrey

I put Pelfrey here in the rotation, even though there's a chance the Mets won't use a 5th starter to begin the season. I don't think El Duque will be ready to start the season, perhaps an extended spring training would be best for him. Johan and Maine have been incredible this spring, each recording at least 20 grapefruit sized K's. Perez has been alright, only walking three so far, which is a good sign. Pedro has been great as well, but time will tell if he can keep up the pace.

RP (7)
Jorge Sosa (0.00)
Matt Wise (0.96)
Pedro Feliciano (0.00)
Aaron Heilman(0.00)
Billy Wagner(1.29)
Duaner Sanchez (5.40)
Scott Schoeneweis (1.00)
Look for the Mets to add an 8th arm to the pen if they want to skip the 5th spot in the rotation for the start of the season. Some possible contenders for that spot would be Steven Register (see below), Joe Smith, or possibly shifting Orlando Hernandez to the pen to start the year (or maybe for good). The pen has been very good this spring, and I posted each player's ERA through yesterday. Duaner's era is up to 5.40 and only 5IP, but I think they'll carry him to start the year, and take it slow with him. For all of you Schoenweis haters, I really do expect him to be a major contributor to the pen this year. The Mets should keep at least 7 men in the pen all year, as last year's collapse was due in part to fatigue in the pen at the end.

25th man Race
Ruben Gotay
Brady Clark
Steven Register

The last spot I feel is still up for grabs, and each of the three have their own situation for the future. Ruben Gotay has options remaining and can be sent to the minors. He has been hurt this spring, so it looks as though he will start the year in New Orleans. Steven Register, a Mets Rule V pick, must make the Mets major league squad, or be offered back to the Rockies. I don't think the Mets can keep him in the majors all year (but perhaps they will keep him to start and let Duaner rehab more) as I see 7 pitchers in the pen already. This leaves Brady Clark, who I think will win the 25th spot. Having Clark for late inning pinch hitting will open the door for Endy to come in for defense if say Damion Easley if he is in LF. This team is still lacking that power bat off the bench, but for now, I believe this is the team that will shipped off to Florida once camp breaks.

AT&T Park Visit...

Recently Andrew and myself traveled out yonder to the west coast to visit brother Ben. During the travels we decided to make a pit stop in one of the premier ball parks of the National League, AT&T Park. This beautiful park constructed recently is home to the San Fransisco Giants. It's awesome. Great views, great seats, terrible team. Anyway, I figure I share some of the better pictures with you, hope you enjoy



For more photos, check out my facebook, or just give a holler....keep trucking


P.S. - Sorry Kaz about the Butt problems....

Devils and Dusty Baker

Hey All --

Not sure if A-Dubz sent this article to everyone else, but he sent it to me. I posted a reply to it at Flashing the Leather and will just copy and paste it below.



Once in a Blue Moon, someone writes an absolutely essential piece. Dante Alighieri wrote The Divine Comedy. Then Giovanni Boccaccio wrote The Decameron. William Shakespeare wrote Hamlet. Thomas Jefferson wrote "The Declaration of Independence." Herman Melville wrote Moby Dick, or The Whale. Darwin wrote On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life.

Since Darwin's publication in 1859, there really have not been any seminal works. However, on 10 March 2008, less than a week ago, Paul Daugherty changed that and drew the United States up ahead of those wankers in England and the caffoni in Italy.

His recent article, [Cincinnati Reds Manager Dusty] Baker judges by his senses just may change how people see, not only baseball, but the world.



Before reading Daugherty's article, I thought that batters wanted to walk. Now I realize that "walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth." He also continues to advocate the Reds trading Joey Votto and Homer Bailey for Joe Blanton.

Before reading this jewel, my problem was not so much with Blanton (although I thought this would be a terrible trade for the Reds to make) as it was with Daugherty's argument for him and arguments against statistics in general. Now I have been made to understand that the only pitching statistic that matters is "Games Won."

He has also made me realize that stats like Flyball/Groundball Ratio are unnecessarily complex and Home and Road ERA Splits are too arbitrary and confusing to have any utility when assessing players' strong and weak points.

He goes on to break down statistical analysis the way it should be done: A way that average scientists like me can understand. Who knew that at the end of the season, when all is said and done, each time a batter walks, he has wasted an opportunity to bat in one half of a run? If I had only known that taking fewer first-pitch strikes would improve run production, I could have imparted that wisdom to Tim Raines. If only he'd realized that those 1330 plate appearances where he'd walked could have been changed into 665 RBI, maybe he could have been a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Finally, Daugherty ties up the article in the clearest, simplest manner, by listing the Managerial Win tallies of Dusty Baker and Bill James. 1162 - 0.

Just to put Daugherty's numbers in a bit more perspective here, a little further research shows that Baker also lost 1041 games (for a Winning Rate of .527). Never mind the fact that he has managed the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs who have consistently had two of the highest payrolls in the NL in recent years.

In 2002, Baker's final year in SF, the Giants finished in second place, with 95 Wins and a $78 M payroll, but the only teams with higher payrolls and fewer wins were the NY Mets (75 Wins, $95 M) and the LA Dodgers (92 W, $95 M). In 2006, Baker's final year in Chicago, the Cubs finished with 66 Wins, least in the National League, 17 1/2 games out of first. Please also note that the Cubs had the highest payroll in their division and 3rd highest in the National League.

But, then again, at least Baker knows his scotch.

Another ridiculous trade

This may go down as the most lop-sided deal in Major League history.

On November 14th, 2003, the Minnesota Twins sent their cancerous catcher, who was coming off a career year, to the San Francisco Giants. In return for A.J. Pierzynski, the Twins received a package that consisted of Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan. At the time, Joe Nathan was the only one with any Major League experience, and was coming off a season in which he was a much-used reliever, who gained 12 wins in the role. A.J. Pierzynski had just had a year in which he hit .312, with 11 homers and 74 RBIs. Liriano and Bonser were just 20 and 21, respectively, at the time of the deal.

A year later, Pierzynski was cut from the Giants, and Joe Nathan had just completed a season in which he had 44 saves with an ERA of 1.62. Since the trade, the Twins have gotten 160 saves and 47 wins from the 3 players they received. Joe Nathan is arguably the best closer in baseball, Francisco Liriano showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, and has the opportunity to solidify tha position this season, and Boof Bonser is a serviceable 5th starter. The Giants got one season from a catcher that his new teammates called a "cancer" by the end of the season.

Imagine the position the Giants could be in today if they had never pulled the triggr on this deal. A rotation of Liriano, Cain, Lincecum, Bonser + whoever (not Zito in all likelyhood with this rotation), with Joe Nathan closing out games. Scary to think about that.

Here's hoping that the Santana trade has a different outcome!

Couple of interesting things:

First for all who, like me, wondered exactly what a "Simulated game" involved.

Second, a player who actually understands and uses stats, none other than former Met Brian Bannister.

Ranking the Rotations!

In preparation for the upcoming season, I have decided to rank the top two thirds of the rotations in Major League Baseball. The rankings are based on overall talent, potential and my own gut feeling. Obviously it is hard to tell how things will shape up this early on, but I am content with the rankings. Feel free to disagree in the comments section!

1. D-backs- Brandon Webb and Dan Haren is an elite 1-2 punch and Randy Johnson can still contribute IF he is healthy. Micah Owings had some moments last year, especially when swinging the bat.
2. Mets- Strong at the top with Johan Santana and better than solid in the middle with John Maine and Oliver Perez. The problem of fifth starter should figure itself out. Pedro Martinez staying healthy is the “x-factor.”
3. Padres- Jake Peavy and Chris Young is a 1-2 punch that rivals that of the D-backs. IF Mark Prior can stay healthy, this may be the best staff in baseball.
4. Red Sox- Josh Beckett was fantastic last year, but had an ERA of over 5 the year before. Dice-K was up and down and Curt Schilling’s availability is an enigma. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester will play a major part.
5. Angels- John Lackey is an overlooked ace, but Kelvim Escobar is having trouble staying healthy and Ervin Santana needs to get his act together. Jon Garland is solid, but nothing more.
6. Indians- One of the best 1-2 punches in baseball (C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona). Too bad everyone is shaky behind them.
7. Mariners- See Indians (replace Sabathia and Carmona with Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez).
8. Dodgers- Brad Penny is coming off his best season yet and Chad Billingsley could develop into a very good pitcher. There are also many questions in Hiroki Kuroda’s translation to MLB and Jason Schmidt’s health.
9. Braves- Tim Hudson had a great bounce-back year and John Smoltz just keeps on truckin’. Tom Glavine is average, however, and it is hard to take Mike Hampton seriously at this point.
10. Giants- Based on one year, Barry Zito may be one of the worst signings in MLB history. Talent-wise, Zito is probably the third best starter on his team at this point in his career, behind the fantastic Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
11. Cubs- Carlos Zambrano gets the benefit of the doubt despite a down year. Rich Hill looks like he will be a good one, but don’t expect Ted Lilly to reproduce his ’07 numbers.
12. Tigers- Justin Verlander is great. Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis are inconsistent. Kenny Rogers may be at the end of his career.
13. Yankees- After a great 2005, Andy Pettitte has followed it up with two 4+ ERA seasons. Chien Ming Wang is consistently very good, but Mike Mussina is a bad apple. If two of the three pitching prospects contribute positively this year, this staff could move up significantly.
14. Blue Jays- Roy Halladay is a regular at the all star game (maybe because the Blue Jays usually don’t have many other good players), and A.J. Burnett can be dominant when healthy. The back end of their rotation has shown some promise.
15. Phillies- Cole Hamels’ ERA (much like the power numbers of everyone in his lineup) is inflated due to the bam-box he plays in. If Brett Myers can put everything together this year, he can be a world-beater. Adam Eaton is an early candidate for the Brett Tomko pitcher of the year award.
16. Rays- Scott Kazmir can be dominant when healthy and James Shields was dominant for a good portion of last year. The addition of Matt Garza makes this a legitimate rotation, and if Edwin Jackson can turn around his 5-15 record from last season, this rotation can be one of the best.
17. White Sox- Mark Buehrle was solid last year but has flirted with disaster in recent years, including a near 5-ERA two years ago. Javier Vasquez had a good year but it was his first sub-4 ERA since 2003. Jose Contreras has been abominable.
18. Twins- This rotation all hinges on the health of Francisco Liriano. If he is healthy, he is as good as anyone. Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker give the rotation some promise.
19. Pirates- Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are give the Pirates a top of the rotation that is similar to the Mets’ middle of the rotation with Maine and Perez. Zach Duke has been a disappointment thus far.
20. Reds- Aaron Harang is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. Bronson Arroyo is probably closer to the pitcher he was last year than two years ago. Homer Bailey has worlds of potential, but struggled in limited play last year.

So there you have it. Stay tuned for the top 20 Lineup Rankings!